About

Чуйка /CHOOy-kah/ is Russian street slang for gut feel. Not a hunch. Not a guess. The instinct that shows up after you’ve done the work - read the 10-K, built the model, stared at the numbers until they start talking back.

Data gets you 80% there. Chuyka gets you the rest.

Who I am

I’m Ilya Nikiforov. Oil and gas engineer by trade. I spent years working in fields and managing operations in Iraq, Kazakhastan, Uzbekistan and UAE - and somewhere between 12-hour shifts I started saving money and wondering what to do with it.

That wondering turned into a passive portfolio in 2014. ETFs, global allocation, Meb Faber’s framework. I ran it for a decade. Learned a lot. Mostly learned that sitting still is harder than it sounds. But it works.

My passive portfolio compounded at more than 7% a year. But it’s all there is to it - it’s passive. No fun.

Along the way I got into data science through Yandex’s program, started applying AI to oil and gas problems at work, and realized the same tools could change how a single retail investor does fundamental research. Reading 10-Ks, pulling financial data, building DCF models, screening for quality factors - things that used to take a team of analysts and a Bloomberg terminal.

So I’m taking another stab at value investing. This time with a decade of passive experience, a business education, and AI doing the heavy lifting on data processing. The judgment is still mine.

What this is

Chuyka is a notebook, not a newsletter.

For this Substack I run a small active portfolio - started with $55,000 in cash, buying into beaten-down stocks one position at a time. Every position is disclosed with entry price and size. Every P&L is public - including the ugly ones. The portfolio is heavy on cash right now. Not because cash is the plan - because valuations are rich and I’d rather hold dollars than overpay for a story. I don’t buy into hype and growth with the crowd. I buy value, or I don’t buy at all.

What you get here:

• Stock deep dives with full DCF models. Not just a fair value number - the complete assumption set, the math.

• Portfolio updates with real numbers. What I bought, what I’m watching, what I passed on and why.

• Process posts about how I actually make decisions. The framework, the mistakes, and the part where I sit on my hands for months doing nothing. That last part is the hardest.

I also write in Russian - a blog and a Telegram channel that have been running since 2014. But I’ve been missing something: the conversation. Thoughtful discussion about investing philosophy and process. That’s how logic sharpens. Writing in English opens that door.

What this is not

I’m not a financial advisor. I don’t have a CFA. I don’t manage money for anyone but myself. I will never tell you what to buy.

I’m a retail investor who does the work and shares the notebook. Sometimes the work leads to a good trade. Sometimes it doesn’t. Both are documented.

If you’re looking for stock picks or trade signals, this isn’t it. If you’re looking for someone showing the real process of trying to beat the market with limited resources and honest math - pull up a chair.

Trust your chuyka. Don’t let FOMO eat you alive.